知識人與中國文化的價值
余英時著
2007年6月11日 星期一
知識人與中國文化的價值
2007年6月7日 星期四
中國股市的泡沫化?
自2006年以來，中國股票市場的漲幅高達258%，許多專業人士，如人民銀行、媒體、投資銀行，甚至李嘉誠及葛林斯班，紛紛指出中國泡沫化的危機。為了使市場降溫，人民政府提高了存貸款的利率、銀行準備率以及與美元間的匯兌波幅。存款的利率提高的幅度大於貸放款，一般認為是為降溫股票市場，但不減少對經濟活動所造成傷害。但是實際上利率在稅課後仍然是負值，所以影響十分有限。而提高與美元匯兌的振幅，其象徵意義大於實質，因為在過去人民幣從未升值至振幅上限，所以此動作主要是被認為中美經濟合作會議結束後的善意表示。因此市場的表現並未如預期有所緩和。
假若中國股票市場泡沫化，根據經濟學人的文章指出，由於中國的股票市場規模相對較小，只有近7%的人民持有股票，所以對於消費市場的影響有限，並不如一般想像會對一般人民的財富造成巨大影響。主要的股票持有還是以國營企業以及政府為眾，因此個人持有的比例更低。
股價變動對於消費者的影響有二: 第一是財富效果。若人民因為股市熱絡預期在未來會擁有更多的財富，而提高現在的消費，vice versa。但中國在市場飆漲的這一年內沒有顯著的減少儲蓄的比例，零售業的成長幅度只相對的伴隨所得的成長。因此如果人民沒有消費其資本獲得，那麼股市的衝擊影響理應有限。 第二，股價的變動會影響公司融資的成本。一旦股價高漲，企業容易籌得資金，並增加投資。但是中國的自我融資比例超過60%，營運利潤及銀行貸款占近20%，而股市融資約為10%。因此對於股市波動對於投資的影響不至於嚴重。
中國股市泡沫化主要的影響會是間接對消費者信心產生負面的衝擊以及促成全球的金融不穩定。一旦股票大量的賣出，消費者也會因為預期及心理因素降低消費，中國政府首先要面對的是那些因此失去學費的學生以及失去畢生積蓄的人民所促成的政治及社會動亂。另外，全球化下的金融市場彼此的連動性將無一倖免。今年二月，中國9%的股市跌停短暫的促成全球金融市場的下跌，所以要預備的也許是中國對於全球輸出的金融衝擊。
2007年5月12日 星期六
2007年4月25日 星期三
Globalisation
The following paragraph is quoted from The Economist 3rd,Feb,2007:
A small but very well-explained paragraph shows the source as well as the possible economic consequence in the globalisation era.
" Barriers to the free flow of goods and services, labour can capital are being pulled down around the world, aided by huge improvements in communications and transport. Most countries are embracing market capitalism, including titans in the developing world. It is not just their tennis shoes and computers that are conquering the globe but, increasingly, their software and services, and indeed their capital. Most important, perhaps, they have vast pools of relatively cheap and increasingly skilled workers who put pressure on jobs and wages in rich countries.
Allied with technology, globalisation increases competition and exposes inefficiency. It tends to lessen inequality among countries and increase it within them. In short, though the overall effect is positive, there are losers as well as winners"
A small but very well-explained paragraph shows the source as well as the possible economic consequence in the globalisation era.
2007年3月10日 星期六
The Prologue to Bertrand Russell's Autobiography
What I Have Lived For
Three passions, simple but overwhelmingly strong, have governed my life: the longing for love, the search for knowledge, and unbearable pity for the suffering of mankind. These passions, like great winds, have blown me hither and thither, in a wayward course, over a great ocean of guish, reaching to the very verge of despair.
I have sought love, first, because it brings ecstasy - ecstasy so great that I would often have sacrificed all the rest of life for a few hours of this joy. I have sought it, next, because it relieves loneliness--that terrible loneliness in which one shivering consciousness looks over the rim of the world into the cold unfathomable lifeless abyss. I have sought it finally, because in the union of love I have seen, in a mystic miniature, the prefiguring vision of the heaven that saints and poets have imagined. This is what I sought, and though it might seem too good for human life, this is what--at last--I have found.
With equal passion I have sought knowledge. I have wished to understand the hearts of men. I have wished to know why the stars shine. And I have tried to apprehend the Pythagorean power by which number holds sway above the flux. A little of this, but not much, I have achieved.
Love and knowledge, so far as they were possible, led upward toward the heavens. But always pity brought me back to earth. Echoes of cries of pain reverberate in my heart. Children in famine, victims tortured by oppressors, helpless old people a burden to their sons, and the whole world of loneliness, poverty, and pain make a mockery of what human life should be. I long to alleviate this evil, but I cannot, and I too suffer.
This has been my life. I have found it worth living, and would gladly live it again if the chance were offered me.
Three passions, simple but overwhelmingly strong, have governed my life: the longing for love, the search for knowledge, and unbearable pity for the suffering of mankind. These passions, like great winds, have blown me hither and thither, in a wayward course, over a great ocean of guish, reaching to the very verge of despair.
I have sought love, first, because it brings ecstasy - ecstasy so great that I would often have sacrificed all the rest of life for a few hours of this joy. I have sought it, next, because it relieves loneliness--that terrible loneliness in which one shivering consciousness looks over the rim of the world into the cold unfathomable lifeless abyss. I have sought it finally, because in the union of love I have seen, in a mystic miniature, the prefiguring vision of the heaven that saints and poets have imagined. This is what I sought, and though it might seem too good for human life, this is what--at last--I have found.
With equal passion I have sought knowledge. I have wished to understand the hearts of men. I have wished to know why the stars shine. And I have tried to apprehend the Pythagorean power by which number holds sway above the flux. A little of this, but not much, I have achieved.
Love and knowledge, so far as they were possible, led upward toward the heavens. But always pity brought me back to earth. Echoes of cries of pain reverberate in my heart. Children in famine, victims tortured by oppressors, helpless old people a burden to their sons, and the whole world of loneliness, poverty, and pain make a mockery of what human life should be. I long to alleviate this evil, but I cannot, and I too suffer.
This has been my life. I have found it worth living, and would gladly live it again if the chance were offered me.
達賴喇嘛~~祈禱願文
願我生生世世，
從現在到永遠，
都是無所依靠者的保護人，
迷路人的嚮導汪洋渡海人的船舶，
過河人的橋險者的庇護殿堂，
黑暗中人的明燈流浪著的收容所，
以及所有求助者隨侍在側的僕人。
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~達賴喇嘛~~祈禱願文~~~~~~~~~~~
從現在到永遠，
都是無所依靠者的保護人，
迷路人的嚮導汪洋渡海人的船舶，
過河人的橋險者的庇護殿堂，
黑暗中人的明燈流浪著的收容所，
以及所有求助者隨侍在側的僕人。
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~達賴喇嘛~~祈禱願文~~~~~~~~~~~
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